ANALISIS PEMILIHAN MODEL PREDIKTOR FINANCIAL DISTRESSTERBAIK (PERBANDINGAN ANTARA THE ZMIJEWSKI MODEL, THE OHLSON MODEL, THE ALTMAN MODEL, DAN THE SPRINGATE MODEL)
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Abstract
This study aims to choose the best financial distress models between The Zmijewski Model, The Ohlson Model, The Altman Model and The Springate Model in manufacturing industries listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Samples from this study are industries that satisfied the criteria of purposive sampling. This study took the 2006 - 2007 period is estimated as the sample, and 2008 - 2009 as the year of the validation samples. SPSS 16.0 is applied to process the data of this study. The model used to test the hypothesis logistic regression (logit) analyzes were applied SPSS 16.0.Logistic regression (logit) analysis shows that the Zmijewski Model, The Ohlson Model, The Altman Model and The Springate model can be used to predict financial distress. Meanwhile, both the Zmijewski Model, The Ohlson Model, The Altman Model and The Springate model can be used to predict financial distress, financial difficulties of prediction accuracy rate of the companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange using the Springate model is 25.2% higher than the 1.3% Zmijewski Model, The Ohlson Model of 22.7% and 15% of The Altman model.
Keywords: Financial Distress, logit, Zmijewski, Ohlson, Altman, Springate.
Article Details
How to Cite
Susandra, F. (2015). ANALISIS PEMILIHAN MODEL PREDIKTOR FINANCIAL DISTRESSTERBAIK (PERBANDINGAN ANTARA THE ZMIJEWSKI MODEL, THE OHLSON MODEL, THE ALTMAN MODEL, DAN THE SPRINGATE MODEL). JURNAL AKUNIDA, 1(2), 61–70. https://doi.org/10.30997/jakd.v1i2.118
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References
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Beaver, William H, 1996, Financial Ratios as Prediction of Failure, Journal of Accounting Research, Supplement,
Blums, Martins, 2003, D-Score Bankruptcy Prediction Model for Middle Market Public Firms, Macalester College Paper.
Boritz, J.Efrim, Kennedy, Duane B, dan Sun, Jerry Y, 2007, Predicting Business Failure in Canada, School of Accountancy, University of Waterloo, Canada.
Fakhrurozie, 2007, Analisis Pengaruh Kebangkrutan Bank dengan Metode Altman Z-Score terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perbankan di Bursa Efek Jakarta, Skripsi Universitas Negeri Semarang.
Fanny, Margareta & Saputra, Sylvia, 2005, Opini Audit Going Concern: Kajian Berdasarkan Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan, Pertumbuhan Perusahaan, dan Reputasi Kantor Akuntan Publik (Studi pada Emiten Bursa Efek Jakarta,Simposium Nasional Akuntansi VIII, Solo.
Ghozali, Imam, 2009, Ekonometrika, Program Doktor Universitas Dipenogoro.
Harahap, Sofyan Syafri, 2007, Analisis Kritis Atas Laporan Keuangan, Rajawali Pers, Jakarta.
Hadi, Syamsul dan Anggraeni, Atika, 2008, Pemilihan Prediktor Delisting Terbaik (Perbandingan Antara The Zmijewski Model, The Altman Model, dan The Springate Model,Simposium Nasional Akuntansi XI,Pontianak.
Hariani, Delvia, 2009,Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan dengan Menggunakan Model Altman pada Perusahaan Food dan Beverage Go Public di Bursa Efek Indonesia, Lampung.
Luciana, 2006,Kondisi Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Go Publik Dengan Menggunakan Multinominal Logit, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. XII.
Nugraheni, Aprilia, 2005,Analisis Ketepatan Prediksi Potensi Kebangkrutan Melalui Altman Z-Score dan Hubungannya dengan Harga Saham pada Perusahaan Perbankan yang Listing di Bursa Efek Jakarta, Semarang.
Ohlson, James A, 1980,Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy, Journal of Accounting Research Vol. 18 No. 1 Spring.
Purwanti, Yulia, 2005,Analisis Rasio Keuangan Dalam Memprediksi Kondisi Keuangan Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar di BEJ, Jogjakarta.
Rani, Paramita Eka, 2010,Analisis Pemilihan Prediktor Kebangkrutan Terbaik (Perbandingan Antara The Zmijewski Model, The Altman Model, dan The Springate Model), Lampung.
Renata, Erizka Famia, 2011, Analisis Ketepatan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan (Perbandingan Antara Model Altman dan Model Springate), Lampung.
Rifqi, Muhammad, 2009,Analisis Perbandingan Model Prediksi Financial Distress Altman, Ohlson, Zmijewski, dan Springate dalam penerapannya di Indonesia, Jakarta.
Rodliyah, Siti,Penerapan Analisis Diskriminan Altman Untuk Memprediksi Tingkat Kebangkrutan (Studi Kasus Pada PerusahaanTekstil dan Produk Tekstil yang Tercatat di BEJ).
Sadgove, Kit, 2006,The Complete Guide Business Risk Management,Gower Publishing Company.
Burlington, England. Samarkoon, Lalith P. dan Hasan, Tanweer, 2003, Altman’s Z-Score Models of Predicting Corporate Distress: Evidence from Emerging Sri Lankan Stock Market,Journal of the Academy of Finance, vol.1, pp. 119-125.
Shumway, Tyler,2001, Forecasting Bankruptcy More Acurately: A Simple Hazard Model, University of Michigan.
Springate, Gordon L.V,1978, Predicting Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm, M.B.A. Research Project.
Wang, Ying dan Campbell, Michael, 2010,Financial Ratios and The Prediction of Bankrupcy: The Ohlson Model Applied to Chinese Publicly Taded Companies,ASBBS Annual Conference
Zmijewski, Mark, 1983, Predicting Corporate Bankrupty: An Empirical Comparison of The Extant Financial Distress Model, Working Paper, SUNNY, Buffalo.
Zu’amah, Surroh, 2005,Perbandingan Ketepatan Klasifikasi Model Prediksi Kepailitan Berbasis Akrual dan Berbasis Aliran Kas,Simposium Nasional Akuntansi VIII. Solo.