PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN KREDIT TERHADAP DINAMIKA INDUSTRI DENGAN METODE MARKOV SWITCHING MODEL

Aulia Keiko Hubbansyah

Abstract

 

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak pertumbuhan kredit terhadap pertumbuhan industri. Dalam menganalisis dampaknya, penelitian ini mengklasifikasi pertumbuhan industri ke dalam dua state atau regime. Sehingga, dapat diidentifikasi dampak pertumbuhan kredit pada masing-masing regime. Dengan menggunakan Markov Switching Model, hasilnya didapati bahwa pengaruh pertumbuhan kredit terhadap pertumbuhan industri lebih besar pada regime pertumbuhan rendah dibandingkan regime pertumbuhan tinggi. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kredit dapat memainkan peran dalam menstabilisasi tren pertumbuhan yang sedang berlangsung. Sementara itu, terkait dengan probabilitas transisional, studi ini juga mendapati bahwa transisi dari regime pertumbuhan rendah ke pertumbuhan tinggi dan sebaliknya cenderung bersifat persisten.

 

Kata Kunci: Pertumbuhan Kredit, Pertumbuhan Industri, Model Markov Switching  

 

Keywords

Pertumbuhan Kredit, Pertumbuhan Industri, Model Markov Switching

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